A strong El Niño is forecast for winter 2026-27. We track Sierra Nevada snowpack against 2023 - the year that broke records and ended hikes - and against the 20-year median, so you can time your entry with data, not hope.
Snow water equivalent (SWE) in the southern Sierra - the stretch the PCT crosses between Kennedy Meadows and Yosemite. Water year runs October to September. Updated weekly from CDEC sensor data.
April 1 snowpack is the benchmark hydrologists use. Here is every year since 2007, southern Sierra:
Live readings from CDEC snow pillows, south to north along the PCT corridor.
| Station | Area | Elevation | SWE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pascoes | Sierra entry · Kennedy Meadows | 9,120 ft | 0.0" |
| Quaking Aspen | South Sierra | 7,200 ft | 0.5" |
| Cottonwood Lakes | Cottonwood Pass area | 10,150 ft | 0" |
| Upper Tyndall Creek | Forester Pass area | 11,500 ft | 0.0" |
| Mitchell Meadow | Mt Whitney area | 10,026 ft | 5.4" |
| South Lake | Bishop Pass area | 9,600 ft | 0" |
| Mammoth Pass | Mammoth | 9,300 ft | 0" |
| Agnew Pass | on the JMT | 9,450 ft | no signal |
| Tenaya Lake | Yosemite | 8,070 ft | 0.8" |
| Tuolumne Meadows | Yosemite | 8,500 ft | 1.0" |
| Dana Meadows | Yosemite · Tioga Pass | 9,760 ft | 0.5" |
What the strongest El Niño in years means for the Sierra.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (Oct 8, 2026) keeps an El Niño Advisory in effect, with better-than-even odds of a historic event. Its seasonal outlook favors above-normal precipitation for much of California this winter.
The catch for hikers: El Niño loads the dice, it doesn't deal them. The strong 2015-16 El Niño produced a near-average Sierra snowpack; the following winter - weak La Niña - set records. The only number that matters is measured SWE in February-March. That's what this page tracks.
The five climates a northbound thru-hike walks through, and when each one works.
Miles 0-702 · April-May
Miles 702-1092 · June-July
Miles 1092-1692 · July-August
Miles 1692-2144 · August
Miles 2144-2653 · August-September
One number decides the crux of a thru-hike: snowpack as a percent of the median, read in February-March.
Weather-driven picks for a 2027 thru-hike. We only list gear that matches the conditions above.